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March Market Wrap: Quick Take (March 29, 2025)
Spring markets are heating up. Here’s the essentials for canola, wheat, and barley.
Market Mood
Vibe: Risk-on, but political noise keeps it shaky.
Global Feel: Pessimistic. Risk: High.
USDA Acreage Report
Coming soon: Corn 94M acres (up), Soybeans 83M (down), Wheat 46M (down). Market will react to surprises.
USDA REPORT ON MARCH 31
Corn 95.326 Million acres
Wheat 45.35
Soybean 83.495
10-Day Sentiment
Wheat: Sideways → Up (75%)
Canola: Sideways → Up (65%)
Barley: Sideways → Down (80%)
Canola
Pros: Strong exports, tight stocks. Cons: Tariffs.
Price: ~$13.50 (625 futures). Stabilizing post-tariff shock.
Farm: Profitable but volatile. Sell old crop now; hold new crop.
30-Day Tech: Range 575–638. Sideways (75%).
Wheat
Pros: Smaller U.S. acres, lower stocks. Cons: Black Sea supply.
Price: ~$8.25 (HRS). Solid market.
Farm: High potential—sell old crop, wait on new for summer rally.
30-Day Tech: Range 543–600. Sideways → Up (75%).
Barley & Corn
Pros: Ethanol (corn), weak CAD (barley). Cons: Big crops, low cattle numbers.
Price (Barley): $290/mt spot, $300/mt July. Flat outlook.
Farm: Barley = cash-flow crop. Sell old; target $310/mt new.
30-Day Tech: Range 435–480. Sideways → Down (65%).
Tips
Old Crop: Clear canola, wheat, barley stocks.
New Crop: Wait for weather rallies.
Watch: USDA data, weather shifts.
Short and sweet—stay sharp for opportunities!
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