March Wrap

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March Market Wrap: Quick Take (March 29, 2025)

Spring markets are heating up. Here’s the essentials for canola, wheat, and barley.

Market Mood

• Vibe: Risk-on, but political noise keeps it shaky.

• Global Feel: Pessimistic. Risk: High.

USDA Acreage Report

• Coming soon: Corn 94M acres (up), Soybeans 83M (down), Wheat 46M (down). Market will react to surprises.

• USDA REPORT ON MARCH 31

  • Corn 95.326 Million acres

  • Wheat 45.35

  • Soybean 83.495

    
    

10-Day Sentiment

• Wheat: Sideways → Up (75%)

• Canola: Sideways → Up (65%)

• Barley: Sideways → Down (80%)

Canola

• Pros: Strong exports, tight stocks. Cons: Tariffs.

• Price: ~$13.50 (625 futures). Stabilizing post-tariff shock.

• Farm: Profitable but volatile. Sell old crop now; hold new crop.

• 30-Day Tech: Range 575–638. Sideways (75%).

Wheat

• Pros: Smaller U.S. acres, lower stocks. Cons: Black Sea supply.

• Price: ~$8.25 (HRS). Solid market.

• Farm: High potential—sell old crop, wait on new for summer rally.

• 30-Day Tech: Range 543–600. Sideways → Up (75%).

Barley & Corn

• Pros: Ethanol (corn), weak CAD (barley). Cons: Big crops, low cattle numbers.

• Price (Barley): $290/mt spot, $300/mt July. Flat outlook.

• Farm: Barley = cash-flow crop. Sell old; target $310/mt new.

• 30-Day Tech: Range 435–480. Sideways → Down (65%).

Tips

• Old Crop: Clear canola, wheat, barley stocks.

• New Crop: Wait for weather rallies.

• Watch: USDA data, weather shifts.

Short and sweet—stay sharp for opportunities!